Tom LoBianco, Maryland politics reporter

(My latest for WYPR, linked here. – TL)

COLUMBIA & TOWSON, MD (wypr) – Gov. Martin O’Malley says he has a problem with the “fairytales” former Gov. Robert Ehrlich has been telling. Before a cheering crowd of supporters in Columbia Wednesday afternoon, the governor shot down some of the fallacies he says his opponent has been spreading.

“His campaign is based on a number of fairy tales. That might be believed when he’s on right-wing radio. But it doesn’t stand up to the facts, it doesn’t stand up to the truth of the matter. And I’m looking forward to having this conversation directly with him whenever he’s up to it.”

The rhetoric may be new, but the political hits are the same in this race as when the governors first ran against each other four years ago.

Ehrlich claims that O’Malley will raise taxes and kill business in Maryland. O’Malley, in effect, calls Ehrlich a right-wing demagogue, who is incapable of governing.

Full story here.

I’ll be talking about this at 1p on WYPR, but here’s a brief rundown on the new Rasmussen poll showing Bob Ehrlich and Martin O’Malley neck-in-neck (linked here):

- The poll shows O’Malley beating Ehrlich again, if the election were held today, 47-44.

- It shows strong approval for Ehrlich among men and for O’Malley among women.

- It also shows O’Malley with higher unfavorables than Ehrlich (no doubt a function of O’M being the incumbent.)

Some general critiques:
- Rasmussen only polled 500 likely voters. An excellent sample would be 1,000 likely voters and Gonzales Research, which has a long history in Maryland, typically does around 800 people.

So the margins are going to be bigger, making this either a lot tighter of race than the poll would have it appear, or a lot less close.

- Rasmussen’s robocall method of polling has drawn criticism because, among other things, it’s harder to judge the validity of your respondents than if you had a person asking the questions.

- All of that said, one national analyst, Nate Silver, has lauded Rasmussen’s national polling work.

- UPDATE: A reader took issue with the assessment that Nate Silver “lauded” Rasmussen and provided a link to this post. In the post, Silver lays out why Rasmussen’s polling methodology tends to favor Republicans. It’s a good read, tad esoteric, but worth the time as we are entering heavy-speculation and prognostication season.

Anybody with some time to kill between 1p and 2p tomorrow should tune in to 88.1 FM for WYPR’s Midday Weekly News Review. I’ll be on with Marta Mossburg of the Maryland Public Policy Institute and Annie Linskey from the Sun.

The inestimable Nathan Sterner will be guest hosting.

Call 410-662-8780 or e-mail midday@wypr.org

(My latest for WYPR, linked here. TL)

BEL AIR, MD (wypr) – Last week, on a sunny day outside the Harford County Circuit Courthouse in Bel Air, Brian Murphy is tried to whip a crowd of Tea Partiers into a frenzy, not a difficult task with this enthusiastic crowd. But the newcomer’s stump speech was unrefined and he wasn’t getting the jazzed reaction many other speakers get at the rally of about 200 supporters.

Murphy is running for governor, first against former Gov. Robert Ehrlich in a Republican primary in September. Then, if he is successful, he would likely face Gov. Martin O’Malley

Talking just a few feet from the pickup truck-turned-dais at the Tea Party party, Murphy was insistent he can take the governor’s office for the Republicans.

“This is for real. I feel like people, when they meet me, they say This is for real.’ I’m not here to make a point. I’m not here to protest, I’m here to win. And when I win, I’m going to fix this government’s budget, God as my witness.”

(My exclusive from WYPR, which aired this morning … TL)

Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Murphy is set to announce former House of Delegates member Carmen Amedori as his running mate Friday. The duo poses a possible problem for former Gov. Robert Ehrlich’s attempt to re-take the State House. WYPR’s Tom LoBianco reports.

Amedori is set to end her bid for U.S. Senate and join Murphy, completing a ticket which will be running to the right of former Gov. Robert Ehrlich in the Republican primary, the sources told WYPR Wednesday.

The Carroll County native served as a Republican member of the House of Delegates for five years before being appointed by Ehrlich to serve state parole board in 2004.

According to a press release from the Murphy campaign, the name of a running mate will be announced Friday.

Murphy declined comment for this story. Amedori did not return calls to her cell phone and an e-mail seeking comment Wednesday.

(My latest for WYPR … linked here. TL)

ROCKVILLE, MD (wypr) – “Once more into the breach. This time it’s history, part two.”

This time it’s different.

Former governor Bob Ehrlich is challenging the man who ousted him less than four years ago, Martin O’Malley. And he hopes to use his status as the challenger attacking an incumbent in an anti-incumbent year to his advantage.

Now it’s O’Malley who must defend some very unpopular budget choices and a string of tax increases. This is a situation Ehrlich told a crowd of a couple hundred supporters that he is very familiar with.

“It’s not just about the past folks, it’s about the future. While we’re talking about contrast, what do we know? We know they raised taxes and we tried to cut them. We know they spend beyond our means and we spent within our budget. They kill jobs, we help create them.”

So, maybe the talking points aren’t that different from four years ago. But the roles are definitely flipped, and so is the mood of the nation. Now Ehrlich is the challenger in a Republican-favoring election cycle, as opposed to when O’Malley ran as the challenger in 2006 in a Democratic-leaning year.

(Here‘s my latest for WYPR, aired this morning. – TL)

ANNAPOLIS, MD (wypr) – “Judiciary is probably seen as more tyrannical leadership for lack of a better word. I say that in all due respect, but it’s more difficult, when the chairman wants something or not, that’s usually the will of the committee.”

That’s Delegate Sue Kullen, president of the Women’s Caucus in Annapolis. She’s been leading a charge to improve domestic violence and child custody laws in Maryland.

She’s talking about Joseph Vallario, the powerful chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. Kullens says he’s the man who has almost single-handedly blocked her efforts.

Over his 17 years as leader of the committee, Vallario, a defense attorney, has become notorious for canning measures he doesn’t like, with little explanation and frustrating advocates across all spectrums.

But Vallario says he’s hardly tyrannical.

“It’s not a fair perception. We have 31 or 32 bills on sex offenders. All 32 bills will not pass, because they are comprised into one bill. We will probably pass one two or three big bills.”

(Here’s my latest from WYPR – TL)

ANNAPOLIS, MD (wypr) – When Republican Scott Brown won the U.S. Senate seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy, many observers noted that labor’s blue collar rank and file broke from leadership and voted red.

Maryland’s political leaders are now questioning whether labor will be the Democratic stalwart it has been in the past.

Senate President Mike Miller said the dynamic that played out in the Massachusetts election, proves that labor’s support is neither guaranteed, nor as effective as it used to be.

“Union turnout is nice, but it’s not something you count on. They vote for both parties, especially the building trades. What you do is each party’s job is to identify voters and get them to the polls. Now some unions are going to be for the Republicans and some unions are going to be for the Democrats. And despite what the leaders say, oftentimes, the members go just the opposite way. Unions, again, are not the major factor they once were.”

Labor helped carry Martin O’Malley to the governor’s office in 2006, and he’s already received the endorsement of the state’s largest teacher’s union.

But O’Malley has also presided over hundreds of layoffs and furloughed state public employees for multiple weeks as he has struggled to account for budget shortfalls. Read the full story, and get the audio here.